Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan have spoken but not resolved the matter. The Russian Kalibr may have a range of 4,500 km and has an accuracy of around 3 meters, making it a potentially formidable weapon against Turkish ground forces, but also a threat against US and allied warships and US and NATO bases in Turkey. Europe does rely on Turkey's cooperation for migration management, including in patrolling the Aegean Sea, so Erdoğan's threat to send all refugees currently in Turkey to Europe if EU countries continue to criticize Ankara's Syria offensive raised some concerns. Turkey did not take kindly to the announcement, accusing the EU of displaying "a protective approach towards terrorist elements" in Syria and saying it would "seriously reconsider our cooperation with the EU on certain areas due to its unlawful and biased stance. What is at Stake as Turkey Prepares to Invade N. Syria? The occupation zone is formally governed by the Syrian Interim Government, an alternative government of the Syrian opposition based in Azaz. ... 2020 to send a warning message to Greece. Last year there were 4,627 incidents of Turkish violations of Greek airspace. Latest news, analysis and comment from POLITICO’s editors and guest writers on German politics. US steps aside for Turkey to invade northern Syria, crush Kurds Apparent green light for offensive comes after Trump speaks to Erdogan; White House says … ", "It's a fundamental misunderstanding that if a NATO member declares a case of attack, all other members have to come to its aid with tank battalions," said Franke. The EU has condemned the invasion. The YPG later took the lead of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a military alliance supported by the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State group. The United States is in a delicate position. Russia insists that Turkey violated deconfliction agreements in place between the two countries and is responsible for what happened to its troops. The Turkish government has ordered its coastguard and border security officials to stand aside and permit the refugees to leave Turkish territory. But it is questionable whether Erdoğan would do so — he has made the threat numerous times before. The first is geographical: Turkey is pushing down into the country from the north — meaning most will flee south rather than north into Turkey and then cross to Greece. Article 5 simply does not apply to the Turkish operation in Syria as there is no attack against Turkish territory that could possibly justify invoking Article 5. But NATO easily agreed to a consultation because it offered an opportunity for the bloc to accuse Russia of attacking the Turks, but with no immediate consequence. In a joint statement on Monday, the bloc also pledged that member states would halt weapons exports to Turkey. Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war begun diplomatically and later escalated militarily during the Syrian civil war. Turkey will invade Syria, destroy Damascus, and then turn southward to invade northern Israel just like the Assyrians did in 734 BC. Turkey says it has killed nearly 600 "terrorists" as of Tuesday. Last week, a Syrian government airstrike killed about three dozen Turkish troops, pushing Turkey to invade and directly challenge Syria’s forces. That gave Turkey open access to Kurdish territory, and a force consisting of Turkish troops and their Syrian Arab proxies began an invasion on … Article 5 of the NATO treaty is its collective security provision. Last week, Turkey launched an incursion into Kurdish-held northeastern Syria, prompting stern condemnation from its Western allies. The military operations have resulted in the Turkish occupation o… Increasingly, Russian interests are diverging from Turkey, although Putin has tried to play the Turkish card, selling the S-400 air defense system to Turkey over strenuous US and NATO objections, and reportedly is discussing with the Turks sales of its advanced warplane technology, probably Su-57 coproduction in Turkey. And even if Turkey did, Article 5 does not mandate NATO members to join the Syrian war on Turkey's side. (It now calls for greater autonomy in the country.) Latest news, analysis and comment from POLITICO’s editors and guest writers on the continent. Latest news, analysis and comment on security in Europe and beyond. In fact, Greece and Turkey are in a major struggle over the eastern Mediterranean and Turkish fighter planes as recently as this past week violated Greek airspace 30 times in a single day (February 25). These councils operate as a "Turkish-European style government". Again, there is no accompanying footage of the attacks whatsoever. Probably not. Saraqib, Al Eis and dozens of other cities and towns were liberated. In general, Turkey exerts a direct influence on the region's government, and Turkish civilian officials such as governors have been appointed to oversee the area. 10 February 2020 — Moon of Alabama. According to SIPRI, 60 percent of Turkey's weapons imports in 2014-2018 came from the United States, with Spain and Italy in second and third place on 17 and 15 percent, respectively. Ankara used this strategy with the United States, most recently in late 2019, when the Turkish military invaded Syria’s northeast after efforts at cooperation on border security collapsed. It's also worth noting that parts of the opposition and many Turks, not just supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, support the military operation. Tens of thousands are trying to escape the fighting, but two factors make it unlikely a significant number will end up in Europe rather than become internally displaced. ", Defense experts disagree. But it was the U.S. that triggered the offensive when President Donald Trump announced the American troops stationed in northeastern Syria would withdraw — effectively green-lighting Turkey's planned incursion. Against that backdrop, a militant group, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), emerged seeking a Kurdish state within Turkey. This site, like many others, uses small files called cookies to help us improve and customize your experience. In August 2016, the Turkish military crossed the border with U.S. air cover. Europe depends on Russia for energy and probably would walk away rather than get caught up in a conflict on its eastern flank. Prior waves of displacement — such as in the spring, when fighting in northeastern Syria prompted 400,000 to flee — did not create another 2015-style refugee crisis. After World War I, the Kurds were left without a state of their own, ending up spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Hungary, meanwhile, appeared to endorse Turkey's Syria incursion on Tuesday in contradiction to the EU member countries' unanimous statement from only a day earlier, in particular Ankara's plan for refugee resettlement. For the same reason the Europeans don’t want a conflict in the eastern Mediterranean. Contradictory. Log in to access content and manage your profile. By logging in, you confirm acceptance of our POLITICO Privacy Policy. Idleb governorate Feb 3 2020 bigger. As ethnic minorities in these states, Kurds frequently faced repression. That’s one of the prime reasons the Turkish occupation of Northern Cyprus has continued since Turkey’s invasion in 1974. Syria – Turkey Invades Idleb But Its Bluff Will Be Called. Turkey is about to do these same things. Last week, Turkey launched an incursion into Kurdish-held northeastern Syria, prompting stern condemnation from its Western allies. The YPG claims they're not directly linked to the PKK, but Turkey — as well as most experts on the region — say they share close ties. The White House pulled United States forces from northeast Syria on Sunday, saying Turkey would be responsible "for all ISIS fighters in the area … Turkey had long threatened to launch an operation in SDF-held territory to create a 32km (20-mile) deep "safe zone" running for 480km (300 miles) along the Syrian side of the border. Turkey’s aggressive effort to make sea bed claims that are not accepted internationally goes with Turkey’s policy to block any oil and gas pipeline that would stretch from Israel and Cyprus to Greece and Italy. What prompted the Turkish invasion and what is President Erdoğan trying to achieve? In-depth reporting, data and actionable intelligence for policy professionals – all in one place. "This morning, Turkey, a NATO member, invaded Syria," Mr. Trump said. That doesn't mean NATO isn't watching Turkey's incursion into Syria with unease. Turkey, already the second-largest military within NATO in terms of personnel, has raised its defense spending by 65 percent over the past decade, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The EU €6.0 billion facility for Syrian refugees in Turkey has achieved remarkable results, to the satisfaction of the Turkish agencies involved. Ankara currently covers 70 percent of its defense needs with domestic production, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said, adding: "Even if an embargo is imposed ... our fight is against a terrorist organization, and we will not back down in that fight for any reason.". "If Turkey goes into Syria, that’s between Turkey and Syria," he said to reporters in the Oval Office. "The United States does not endorse this attack and has made it clear to Turkey that this operation is a bad idea. Turkey’s invasion of Syria turns sour Ankara was forced to request urgent consultations with NATO under Article 4 of the bloc's treaty Turkish military reinforcements are seen before leaving for observation posts in Syria's Idlib, on February 12, 2020 in Hatay, Turkey. Turkish News: Akar - Defense Secretary has given a press conferenece claiming that Turkey has attacked Syria again and that 151 'regime' target were hit including tanks and a helicopter!! Ankara therefore saw a threat to its own security in the quasi-autonomous Kurdish state on its doorstep, dubbing it a "terror corridor" where the PKK could hide or easily attack from. And could NATO be dragged into the conflict? "This fear that's being stirred up, particularly in Germany, that the Bundeswehr will be dragged into the Syrian war by Turkey invoking Article 5, is incomprehensible.". While the US would not mind seeing Russia and Turkey at loggerheads, Washington has zero interest in being drawn into a conflict that could become a clash between the Russian air force and navy against the US and Turkey. Explore the live extension of our journalism, The wonk's survival guide to the EU Green Deal. If you do not have a login you can register here. Turkey urgently requested consultations with NATO under Article 4 of the NATO treaty. Probably the best that can be achieved in Syria is a temporary standstill. Reports by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and others say dozens of civilians were killed. Ankara's aim is twofold: pushing YPG fighters at least 30 kilometers away from its border and establishing a so-called "safe zone" in parts of Syrian territory it seizes to which it plans to return refugees. But Russia won’t agree that Syria forego its effort to retake its own territory, so the two sides will have to find a creative solution, something the Turkish style of intervention and diplomacy is unaccustomed to doing. That “struggle” has metastasized into a struggle against the Syrian army and Russia, although Russia is proclaiming its innocence, saying its air force did not attack Turkish troops or command posts in Syrian territory. The same day, they agreed to prepare a list of possible sanctions — to be deployed if and when the EU decides to do so — on Turkish individuals and legal entities over Ankara's drilling activities off Cyprus. Ankara subsequently launched the operation on October 9, with its troops entering Kurdish-held territories alongside Turkish-backed Syrian Arab militias. A few years later they invaded southern Israel. 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